災害

Will a Major Earthquake Strike Japan in July 2025? No Scientific Basis for Specific Date Predictions [Fact Check]

根津綾子(Ayako Nezu)

2025年6月18日

Rumors are circulating online that a massive earthquake will hit Japan in July 2025. However, there is no scientific evidence supporting this claim. The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) states that “based on current scientific knowledge, it is difficult to predict the exact time and location of an earthquake.”

※これは「2025年7月に日本で大地震が起きる? 日付特定する地震予測は不可能【ファクトチェック】」の英語版です（This is the English version of the article mentioned above）。

Claim:

Claims that a major natural disaster and a massive tsunami will strike Japan in July 2025 are spreading across social media platforms such as X, TikTok, and YouTube ( Examples1、2、3).

The posts have prompted a variety of reactions, including anxious comments such as “Could this be true?” and “Scary,” as well as more rational responses like, “Whether it comes true or not is not the point—what matters is being informed and prepared to respond quickly at any time.”

Verification Process

Origin: A Manga Story

The examples cited (Examples1、2、3) all refer to a manga titled Watashi ga Mita Mirai: Kanzenban (The Future I Saw: Complete Edition) by Tatsuki Ryo. The manga is styled as a dream journal in which the author records dreams she allegedly experienced. Originally published in 1999, it later attracted attention for having "predicted" the Great East Japan Earthquake that occurred in 2011.

In the first section of the manga, “Prophetic Dreams,” the author describes a dream that includes the following details:

“The disaster occurs in July 2025.”
“The seabed between Japan and the Philippines suddenly erupts.”
“Huge waves spread in all directions across the ocean, sending massive tsunamis to countries around the Pacific.”
“The tsunami was three times higher than that of the Great East Japan Earthquake that occurred in 2011.”

JMA: “Accurate Earthquake Predictions Are Difficult with Current Science”

The Japan Meteorological Agency has addressed these claims on its website, stating that “based on current scientific knowledge, highly accurate earthquake predictions are difficult.”

In response to the question “Is it possible to predict earthquakes?” the JMA provides the following explanation:

“To predict earthquakes means to accurately specify the time, location, and magnitude of a future earthquake. For example, vague predictions such as ‘a magnitude 5 earthquake will occur somewhere in inland Japan within the next year’ or predictions of small earthquakes (magnitude 4 or less) that occur daily may often come true, but they hold little informational value. For a prediction to be meaningful, it must be specific—e.g., ‘a magnitude 6–7 earthquake will occur directly beneath Tokyo within a week.’ However, based on current scientific understanding, such precise predictions are not feasible. Therefore, in general, information claiming to predict the exact date and location of earthquakes should be regarded as misinformation.” (JMA, “On Earthquake Prediction”)

Impact on Tourism

Although these so-called “prophecies” lack any scientific basis, they have spread internationally—and are already affecting the tourism industry. Reports suggest that tourists, particularly from Hong Kong, are canceling trips to Japan. Airlines have even reduced or suspended flights in response. (Yomiuri Shimbun, June 2, 2025; NHK, June 12, 2025)

Our rating:No Evidence

While the claims that a massive earthquake will strike Japan in July 2025 have gone viral, the current scientific consensus holds that predicting the precise date and location of an earthquake is not possible. Therefore, this claim is deemed unfounded.

Sources & References

Tatsuki, Ryo. Watashi ga Mita Mirai: Kanzenban (Kindle edition). Asuka Shinsha, 2021, pp. 82–86.

Japan Meteorological Agency. “On Earthquake Prediction.” https://www.jma.go.jp/jma/kishou/know/faq/faq24.html#yochi_6 (Accessed June 17, 2025).

Yomiuri Shimbun. “Rumors of 'Big Quake in July' Spark Flight Cancellations from Hong Kong... Based on Manga Prediction, Miyagi Governor Calls It a Serious Issue.” June 2, 2025. https://www.yomiuri.co.jp/national/20250602-OYT1T50019/(Accessed June 17, 2025)

NHK. "Hong Kong Airlines to Cancel Kagoshima and Kumamoto Flights in July and August Due to Drop in Travel Amid Earthquake Rumors." June 12, 2025. https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20250612/k10014833471000.html (accessed June 17, 2025).

Fact-checked by: Ayako Nezu
Edited by: Kamome Fujimori, Daisuke Furuta

※This is the English version of the article below.